Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 11.423579 13.369349 15.493152 17.976474 20.793235 23.881545 27.516157
2025-01-05 8.369238 11.011114 14.182285 18.236304 23.244965 29.191780 36.744256
2025-01-12 6.351307 9.255813 13.038776 18.249158 25.149840 33.877316 45.635351
2025-01-19 5.004351 7.987163 12.160047 18.285920 26.884813 38.337960 54.519298
2025-01-26 4.411285 7.599880 12.333130 19.651383 30.411964 45.338868 67.218276
2025-02-02 3.835348 7.099694 12.219568 20.519120 33.242065 51.538290 79.234324
2025-02-09 3.363045 6.658597 12.097623 21.303059 35.953338 57.705465 91.578030
2025-02-16 2.834771 6.010759 11.528474 21.275313 37.366646 62.009105 101.437893
2025-02-23 2.322763 5.284040 10.703663 20.695463 37.798779 64.793417 109.133325
2025-03-02 1.876911 4.587188 9.814414 19.869104 37.700566 66.679220 115.491470
2025-03-09 1.601401 4.176741 9.382575 19.778491 38.793908 70.487102 125.036263
2025-03-16 1.348153 3.758008 8.866269 19.456030 39.425922 73.542070 133.504207
2025-03-23 1.239613 3.656909 8.990223 20.396241 42.452987 80.902590 149.640237
2025-03-30 1.091965 3.429903 8.819346 20.740676 44.423925 86.605326 163.383228
2025-04-06 0.942222 3.161215 8.514818 20.773772 45.803985 91.360020 175.787714
2025-04-13 0.815742 2.922149 8.236575 20.821244 47.201449 96.215389 188.614841
2025-04-20 0.790817 2.966231 8.628086 22.348795 51.631490 106.804774 212.020152
2025-04-27 0.736073 2.908340 8.762504 23.318101 55.004173 115.629473 232.705626
2025-05-04 0.681475 2.837340 8.852636 24.192826 58.241807 124.370431 253.643355
2025-05-11 0.593490 2.633192 8.566840 24.161983 59.579333 129.583664 268.398065
2025-05-18 0.494680 2.360386 8.049827 23.515253 59.540385 132.133366 278.342576
2025-05-25 0.402564 2.078517 7.453494 22.593056 58.807222 133.257648 285.640738
2025-06-01 0.348678 1.924852 7.197483 22.491901 59.880356 138.008107 300.014936